Cockpit zone: Warning lights
· 1 source(s) pending
The 'are we okay?' panel: four US recession signals. The two yield curves are leading: before each recession since 1982 the 10Y–3M curve's monthly average turned negative 8–16 months before the NBER peak. The Sahm rule and the recession probability are coincident: from 1969 to 2020 the Sahm rule crossed 0.5 between two months before and four months after each peak.
More in the guide ›
Yield curve 10Y–3M
leading
10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield; below 0 = inverted. Before each recession since the series began in 1982, its monthly average turned negative 8–16 months before the NBER peak. The inversions of 2022–25 had not been followed by a recession as of October 2026.
Yield curve 10Y–3M
ⓘ
0.83 pp
+0.9σ
82 pct
●
as of 2026-10-16
▲
+0.01 vs prior
▲
+0.01σ vs prior
▲
+0 pct vs prior
Positively sloped
Yield curve 10Y–2Y
leading
10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield; below 0 = inverted. Its monthly average turned negative 10–22 months before each NBER peak from 1980 to 2007, but not before the February 2020 peak. It tends to turn negative earlier and more often than the 10Y–3M curve (Estrella and Trubin, 2006).
Yield curve 10Y–2Y
ⓘ
0.35 pp
+0.6σ
62 pct
●
as of 2026-10-16
▲
+0.02 vs prior
▲
+0.04σ vs prior
▲
+2 pct vs prior
Flat — late-cycle
Sahm rule (real-time)
coincident
Real-time Sahm rule: the 3-month average unemployment rate minus its low of the previous 12 months, in percentage points; 0.5 is the trigger. From 1969 to 2020 it crossed 0.5 between two months before and four months after each NBER peak. It also reached 0.5 in November 1976 and July–September 2024 without a recession.
Sahm rule (real-time)
ⓘ
0.00 pp
-0.7σ
26 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.07 vs prior
▲
+0.33σ vs prior
▲
+11 pct vs prior
Below trigger
Recession probability
coincident
Smoothed probability (%) that the US was in recession in a given month, from Chauvet and Piger's model of payrolls, industrial production, real income excluding transfers and real manufacturing and trade sales. It reads the present, not the future. Piger: three consecutive months above 80% has historically signalled a new recession. The 20% and 50% badge bands are the dashboard's own.
Recession probability
ⓘ
0.62 %
+0.6σ
83 pct
●
as of 2026-08-01
▲
+0.38 vs prior
▲
+1.00σ vs prior
▲
+35 pct vs prior
Low
Cockpit zone: Windscreen
Financial conditions and liquidity, the first link in the dashboard's transmission chain. The NFCI and the St. Louis Fed stress index are 0 at their historical averages; positive values mean tighter or more stressed than average. Net liquidity is the Fed's total assets minus the Treasury's account and overnight reverse repos.
More in the guide ›
Financial conditions (NFCI)
leading
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index: a weighted average of 105 financial measures, 0 = average since 1971. Positive = tighter than average, negative = looser. It was above 0 in 29% of weeks since 1971, most recently in May 2020.
Financial conditions (NFCI)
ⓘ
-0.50
-0.8σ
31 pct
●
as of 2026-10-09
▲
+0.01 vs prior
▲
+0.06σ vs prior
▲
+6 pct vs prior
Loose — tailwind
Adjusted NFCI
leading
Adjusted NFCI: financial conditions after removing the part attributable to economic activity and inflation. Positive = tighter than the economy would typically produce; negative = looser.
Adjusted NFCI
ⓘ
-0.48
-0.6σ
37 pct
●
as of 2026-10-09
▲
+0.01 vs prior
▲
+0.08σ vs prior
▲
+3 pct vs prior
Loose — tailwind
St. Louis Fed financial stress
leading
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (version 4), built from 18 weekly interest rates, yield spreads and other indicators. 0 = normal market stress; above 0 = more stressed than average. Its highest weekly readings came in October 2008 and March 2020.
St. Louis Fed financial stress
ⓘ
-0.72
-0.7σ
25 pct
●
as of 2026-10-09
▼
-0.25 vs prior
▼
-0.76σ vs prior
▼
-37 pct vs prior
Fed balance sheet
leading
Total assets of the Federal Reserve (Wednesday level, $ millions). It peaked at $8.97 trillion in April 2022, shrank under quantitative tightening until the FOMC ended the run-off on 1 December 2025, and has grown since with Treasury bill purchases.
Fed balance sheet
ⓘ
6,755,639 $M
-1.0σ
31 pct
●
as of 2026-10-14
▲
+8,079 vs prior
▲
+0.01σ vs prior
▲
+1 pct vs prior
Treasury General Account
leading
The US Treasury's general account at the Fed (week average, $ millions). On the Fed's balance sheet it absorbs reserve funds: other things equal, a higher balance means lower bank reserves.
Treasury General Account
ⓘ
883,373 $M
+1.0σ
89 pct
●
as of 2026-10-14
▲
+3,120 vs prior
▲
+0.01σ vs prior
▲
+1 pct vs prior
Overnight reverse repo
leading
Overnight reverse repos with the Fed ($ billions): money funds, banks, GSEs and dealers placing cash with the Fed overnight against Treasuries, which shifts the Fed's liabilities from bank reserves to reverse repos. Usage peaked at $2.55 trillion in December 2022 and has been below $100 billion almost every day since August 2025.
Overnight reverse repo
ⓘ
0.10 $B
-1.0σ
0 pct
●
as of 2026-10-16
▼
-1.10 vs prior
▼
-0.00σ vs prior
▼
-9 pct vs prior
Net liquidity (Fed − TGA − RRP)
derived
Fed total assets minus the Treasury General Account minus overnight reverse repos ($ millions), computed by this dashboard. Both subtracted items absorb reserve funds, so a rise means more of the Fed's balance sheet is left as bank reserves, currency and other liabilities.
Net liquidity (Fed − TGA − RRP)
ⓘ
5,869,716 $M
-0.7σ
22 pct
●
as of 2026-10-16
▲
+1,101 vs prior
▲
+0.00σ vs prior
▲
+0 pct vs prior
M2 growth (year on year)
leading
M2 money stock, change over 12 months (%). Below 0 = smaller than a year earlier, which in the series since 1959 happened only from December 2022 to February 2024; growth peaked at 26.8% in February 2021.
M2 growth (year on year)
ⓘ
5.66 %
+0.7σ
86 pct
●
as of 2026-08-01
▲
+0.25 vs prior
▲
+0.06σ vs prior
▲
+2 pct vs prior
Cockpit zone: Windscreen
· 1 source(s) pending
Credit and interest rates. The loan officer survey shows whether banks are tightening lending standards; the ICE BofA spreads show the extra yield corporate bonds pay over Treasuries; the rest are policy rates and government bond yields for the US and other major economies.
More in the guide ›
C&I lending standards (SLOOS)
leading
Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey: the net percentage of banks tightening standards for C&I loans to large and middle-market firms (tightened minus eased). Above 0 = more banks tightening than easing. It peaked at 83.6% in the October 2008 survey.
C&I lending standards (SLOOS)
ⓘ
0.00 %
-0.8σ
22 pct
●
as of 2026-07-01
▼
-8.10 vs prior
▼
-0.42σ vs prior
▼
-28 pct vs prior
HY credit spread (OAS)
licensed
ICE BofA US High Yield option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of below-investment-grade (BB or lower) US corporate bonds over Treasuries, in %. The badge bands are the dashboard's own. Licensed: link-only on the public site; since April 2026 FRED keeps only the last three years.
HY credit spread (OAS)
ⓘ
Copyrighted data: republishing it requires the rights holder's permission,
so it is linked rather than shown.
IG credit spread (OAS)
licensed
ICE BofA US Corporate option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of investment-grade (BBB or better) US corporate bonds over Treasuries, in %. Licensed: link-only on the public site; since April 2026 FRED keeps only the last three years.
IG credit spread (OAS)
ⓘ
Copyrighted data: republishing it requires the rights holder's permission,
so it is linked rather than shown.
HY − IG (decompression)
licensed
High-yield spread minus investment-grade spread, in percentage points: how much more the market charges below-investment-grade borrowers. The badge bands are the dashboard's own. Licensed inputs: link-only on the public site; since April 2026 FRED keeps only the last three years of them.
HY − IG (decompression)
ⓘ
Copyrighted data: republishing it requires the rights holder's permission,
so it is linked rather than shown.
10Y Treasury volatility (realized)
leading
Realized volatility of the 10-year Treasury yield: the standard deviation of the last 21 daily changes, annualized, in basis points. It looks back over the past month; the dashboard uses it in place of the licensed ICE BofA MOVE index. Its median since 1962 is 78 bp.
10Y Treasury volatility (realized)
ⓘ
91.00 bp
-0.1σ
49 pct
●
as of 2026-10-15
▲
+6.48 vs prior
▲
+0.23σ vs prior
▲
+8 pct vs prior
3M Treasury yield
leading
3-month Treasury constant-maturity yield (H.15). Since December 2008 it has tracked the effective federal funds rate closely (correlation 0.997). The short leg of the 10Y–3M curve.
3M Treasury yield
ⓘ
4.28 %
+0.2σ
44 pct
●
as of 2026-10-15
▬
+0.00 vs prior
▬
+0.00σ vs prior
▬
+0 pct vs prior
2Y Treasury yield
leading
2-year Treasury constant-maturity yield (H.15). The short leg of the 10Y–2Y curve.
2Y Treasury yield
ⓘ
4.77 %
+0.9σ
87 pct
●
as of 2026-10-15
▼
-0.05 vs prior
▼
-0.05σ vs prior
▼
-2 pct vs prior
10Y Treasury yield
leading
10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield (H.15): the long leg of both recession curves and the bond side of the US stocks-vs-bonds tile. Its lowest close was 0.52% (4 August 2020).
10Y Treasury yield
ⓘ
5.10 %
+1.5σ
99 pct
●
as of 2026-10-15
▼
-0.09 vs prior
▼
-0.11σ vs prior
▼
+0 pct vs prior
Fed funds rate (effective)
coincident
Effective federal funds rate: the volume-weighted median of overnight federal funds trades, from the New York Fed. It has stayed inside the FOMC's target range on all but four days since December 2008, so it shows where policy is set.
Fed funds rate (effective)
ⓘ
3.88 %
+0.1σ
41 pct
●
as of 2026-10-15
▬
+0.00 vs prior
▬
+0.00σ vs prior
▬
+0 pct vs prior
ECB deposit rate
coincident
ECB deposit facility rate: what banks earn on overnight deposits with the Eurosystem; since March 2024 the ECB steers its policy stance through it. A step series that changes only on decision dates.
ECB deposit rate
ⓘ
2.50 %
+0.0σ
48 pct
●
as of 2026-09-16
▲
+0.25 vs prior
▲
+0.21σ vs prior
▲
+12 pct vs prior
10Y yield — Euro area
leading
Euro-area 10-year government bond yield: the ECB's long-term interest rate for convergence purposes (euro area in its changing composition), monthly.
10Y yield — Euro area
ⓘ
3.93 %
+1.4σ
100 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.32 vs prior
▲
+0.37σ vs prior
▲
+2 pct vs prior
10Y yield — Germany
leading
German 10-year government bond yield (OECD, monthly). It was below 0 in 38 months between June 2016 and January 2022. Compare the French and Italian yields with it.
10Y yield — Germany
ⓘ
3.47 %
+1.5σ
100 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.28 vs prior
▲
+0.31σ vs prior
▲
+2 pct vs prior
10Y yield — France
leading
French 10-year government bond yield (OECD, monthly). Since 1999 its spread over Germany's peaked at 1.54 percentage points, in November 2011.
10Y yield — France
ⓘ
4.48 %
+1.7σ
100 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.45 vs prior
▲
+0.45σ vs prior
▲
+2 pct vs prior
10Y yield — Italy
leading
Italian 10-year government bond yield (OECD, monthly). Since 1999 its spread over Germany's peaked at 5.18 percentage points, in November 2011.
10Y yield — Italy
ⓘ
3.99 %
+0.5σ
75 pct
●
as of 2026-08-01
▲
+0.11 vs prior
▲
+0.12σ vs prior
▲
+5 pct vs prior
10Y yield — UK
leading
UK 10-year government bond yield (OECD, monthly). For the short end, see SONIA.
10Y yield — UK
ⓘ
5.24 %
+1.2σ
100 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.25 vs prior
▲
+0.22σ vs prior
▲
+2 pct vs prior
10Y yield — Japan
leading
Japanese 10-year government bond yield (OECD, monthly). It was below 0 in 24 months between February 2016 and April 2020.
10Y yield — Japan
ⓘ
3.05 %
+2.4σ
100 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.11 vs prior
▲
+0.13σ vs prior
▲
+2 pct vs prior
10Y yield — Canada
leading
Canadian 10-year government bond yield (OECD, monthly).
10Y yield — Canada
ⓘ
3.88 %
+1.4σ
98 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.21 vs prior
▲
+0.38σ vs prior
▲
+7 pct vs prior
3M govt yield — Euro area (AAA)
coincident
3-month spot yield on AAA-rated euro-area government bonds, from the ECB's daily yield curve. Since 2004 it has averaged 0.12 percentage points above the ECB deposit rate.
3M govt yield — Euro area (AAA)
ⓘ
2.58 %
+0.4σ
63 pct
●
as of 2026-10-15
▲
+0.04 vs prior
▲
+0.03σ vs prior
▲
+2 pct vs prior
SONIA — UK
coincident
SONIA, the sterling overnight rate the Bank of England administers, based on actual transactions. Since April 2018 it has stayed within 0.12 percentage points of Bank Rate, so it shows where the Bank has set policy.
SONIA — UK
ⓘ
3.73 %
+0.0σ
42 pct
●
as of 2026-10-14
▲
+0.00 vs prior
▲
+0.00σ vs prior
▲
+1 pct vs prior
Overnight call rate — Japan
coincident
Uncollateralized overnight call rate (average): the rate the Bank of Japan's policy guideline targets, raised to around 1.25% on 18 September 2026. It was negative from March 2016 to March 2024.
Overnight call rate — Japan
ⓘ
1.23 %
+3.0σ
100 pct
●
as of 2026-10-14
▬
+0.00 vs prior
▬
+0.00σ vs prior
▬
+0 pct vs prior
3M rate — Canada
coincident
Canada 3-month interbank rate (OECD, monthly).
3M rate — Canada
ⓘ
2.33 %
-0.5σ
33 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.05 vs prior
▲
+0.03σ vs prior
▲
+3 pct vs prior
Cockpit zone: Windscreen / Weather
US and international inflation. Breakevens and the Michigan survey measure expected inflation; CPI, PCE, PPI and HICP measure prices, as changes over 12 months. Targets: the Fed's 2% is for PCE inflation, the ECB's 2% for euro-area HICP inflation over the medium term, the Bank of England's 2% for UK CPI inflation, and the Bank of Japan has a 2% price stability target.
More in the guide ›
5Y inflation breakeven
leading
5-year breakeven inflation rate: the 5-year Treasury yield minus the 5-year TIPS yield, which FRED describes as the average inflation market participants expect over the next 5 years. The 2.3% reference line and the badge bands are the dashboard's own.
5Y inflation breakeven
ⓘ
2.37 %
-0.3σ
49 pct
●
as of 2026-10-16
▲
+0.04 vs prior
▲
+0.14σ vs prior
▲
+9 pct vs prior
Anchored
10Y inflation breakeven
leading
10-year breakeven inflation rate: the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 10-year TIPS yield, the average inflation market participants expect over the next 10 years (FRED). The 2.3% reference line and the badge bands are the dashboard's own.
10Y inflation breakeven
ⓘ
2.35 %
-0.0σ
60 pct
●
as of 2026-10-16
▲
+0.03 vs prior
▲
+0.20σ vs prior
▲
+14 pct vs prior
Anchored
5y5y forward breakeven
leading
5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate: the average inflation expected over the five years that begin five years from now, derived by FRED from the 5- and 10-year breakevens. The 2.3% reference line and the badge bands are the dashboard's own.
5y5y forward breakeven
ⓘ
2.33 %
+0.6σ
75 pct
●
as of 2026-10-16
▲
+0.02 vs prior
▲
+0.20σ vs prior
▲
+9 pct vs prior
Anchored
1Y expected inflation (UMich)
leading
University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers: the median price change consumers expect over the next 12 months. FRED shows it with a one-month delay by agreement with the source. Since 2020 it peaked at 6.6% (May 2025).
1Y expected inflation (UMich)
ⓘ
4.00 %
-0.2σ
40 pct
●
as of 2026-08-01
▼
-0.20 vs prior
▼
-0.21σ vs prior
▼
-6 pct vs prior
CPI inflation — US
coincident
US CPI for all urban consumers, all items: change over 12 months (%), from the BLS index (seasonally adjusted). FRED has no October 2025 value, so that month and October 2026 have none here. The Fed's 2% goal refers to PCE inflation, not CPI.
CPI inflation — US
ⓘ
3.72 %
-0.3σ
62 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.36 vs prior
▲
+0.17σ vs prior
▲
+9 pct vs prior
Above target
Core CPI inflation — US
coincident
US CPI excluding food and energy (core CPI): change over 12 months (%), from the BLS index (seasonally adjusted). FRED has no October 2025 value, so that month and October 2026 have none here.
Core CPI inflation — US
ⓘ
2.57 %
-1.1σ
10 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.12 vs prior
▲
+0.09σ vs prior
▲
+9 pct vs prior
Above target
Core PCE inflation — US
coincident
US PCE price index excluding food and energy (BEA): change over 12 months (%). The FOMC's 2% longer-run goal is for the annual change in the overall PCE price index; this core measure excludes food and energy.
Core PCE inflation — US
ⓘ
3.01 %
-0.7σ
41 pct
●
as of 2026-08-01
▲
+0.02 vs prior
▲
+0.02σ vs prior
▲
+2 pct vs prior
Above target
PPI final demand inflation — US
leading
US producer price index for final demand (BLS, index from November 2009): change over 12 months (%). There is no target for it, so no reference line or badge.
PPI final demand inflation — US
ⓘ
6.35 %
+0.6σ
76 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.76 vs prior
▲
+0.24σ vs prior
▲
+8 pct vs prior
HICP inflation — Euro area
coincident
Euro-area HICP inflation (Eurostat), annual rate, for the euro area in its changing composition (21 countries from 2026). The ECB aims for 2% HICP inflation over the medium term and treats deviations on either side as equally undesirable.
HICP inflation — Euro area
ⓘ
3.80 %
-0.2σ
60 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.60 vs prior
▲
+0.22σ vs prior
▲
+3 pct vs prior
Above target
HICP inflation — EU
coincident
EU-27 HICP inflation (Eurostat), annual rate.
HICP inflation — EU
ⓘ
3.80 %
-0.3σ
60 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.60 vs prior
▲
+0.20σ vs prior
▲
+8 pct vs prior
Above target
HICP inflation — Germany
coincident
German HICP inflation (Eurostat), annual rate.
HICP inflation — Germany
ⓘ
3.30 %
-0.4σ
58 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.40 vs prior
▲
+0.14σ vs prior
▲
+5 pct vs prior
Above target
HICP inflation — France
coincident
French HICP inflation (Eurostat), annual rate.
HICP inflation — France
ⓘ
3.40 %
-0.0σ
59 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.80 vs prior
▲
+0.37σ vs prior
▲
+13 pct vs prior
Above target
CPI inflation — UK
coincident
UK CPI inflation, annual rate (ONS, series D7G7). The Government sets the Bank of England a 2% target for CPI inflation.
CPI inflation — UK
ⓘ
3.10 %
-0.7σ
32 pct
●
as of 2026-08-01
▲
+0.20 vs prior
▲
+0.07σ vs prior
▲
+7 pct vs prior
Above target
CPI inflation — Japan
coincident
Japan CPI inflation, % over 12 months, from the IMF's CPI dataset, which carries each economy's national all-items headline index. The Bank of Japan has a 2% price stability target.
CPI inflation — Japan
ⓘ
1.96 %
-0.7σ
22 pct
●
as of 2026-08-01
▼
-0.09 vs prior
▼
-0.10σ vs prior
▼
-2 pct vs prior
Near target
Cockpit zone: Windscreen / GPS
· 1 source(s) pending
Growth momentum and turning points. The first five tiles place the US, the euro area, the UK, Japan and China in one of four growth-and-inflation regimes, after Bridgewater's four economic environments. The OECD leading indicators are read by direction; the OECD finds turning points in GDP about 4 to 8 months, on average, after its indicators signal them. The dashboard classes the surveys and orders as leading, industrial production as coincident and GDP as lagging.
More in the guide ›
Growth & inflation — US
leading
Which of four growth-and-inflation regimes the US is in. Bridgewater describes four economic environments, growth and inflation each rising or falling relative to expectations; this tile reads the direction instead. Growth: the 3-month change in the OECD leading indicator for the US. Inflation: CPI inflation minus its average over the past 12 months, so a price jump counts as rising until it leaves the average. Above zero counts as rising; the regime names are the dashboard's. Since 1960 the regime has changed about 2.4 times a year. Pick a period with the handles under the strip, by dragging across the strip, or (on the public site) with the zoom; the quadrant traces that period, its last 12 months dark. The chart is the same in every display mode. The OECD revises recent months of its indicator; FRED has no October 2025 CPI, which this tile fills in log-linearly.
Growth & inflation — US
ⓘ
Growth ↑ Inflation ↑
●
as of 2026-09-01
Since Mar 2026, after Goldilocks
Growth: CLI 101.00, +0.24 over 3 months
Inflation: CPI 3.72%, 12-month average 3.18%
Last 12 months
Earlier
Sep 2026
Nov 2023 – Sep 2026
(drag the handles to change it)
Growth & inflation — Euro area
leading
The four growth-and-inflation regimes for the euro area, built like the US tile. Growth: the 3-month change in the OECD leading indicators for Germany, France, Italy and Spain, combined with GDP weights (the OECD's dataset has no euro-area indicator). Inflation: euro-area HICP inflation (Eurostat, the euro area in its changing composition) minus its average over the past 12 months. The history starts in December 1997. Pick a period with the handles under the strip, by dragging across the strip, or (on the public site) with the zoom; the quadrant traces that period, its last 12 months dark. The chart is the same in every display mode.
Growth & inflation — Euro area
ⓘ
Growth ↑ Inflation ↑
●
as of 2026-09-01
Since Aug 2026, after Stagflation
Growth: CLI 100.57, +0.16 over 3 months
Inflation: HICP 3.80%, 12-month average 2.61%
Last 12 months
Earlier
Sep 2026
Nov 2023 – Sep 2026
(drag the handles to change it)
Growth & inflation — UK
leading
The four growth-and-inflation regimes for the UK, built like the US tile. Growth: the 3-month change in the OECD leading indicator for the UK. Inflation: CPI inflation (ONS) minus its average over the past 12 months. The history starts in December 1989, as the ONS CPI annual rate begins in January 1989. Pick a period with the handles under the strip, by dragging across the strip, or (on the public site) with the zoom; the quadrant traces that period, its last 12 months dark. The chart is the same in every display mode.
Growth & inflation — UK
ⓘ
Growth ↑ Inflation ↓
●
as of 2026-08-01
Since Jun 2026, after Disinflationary slowdown
Growth: CLI 101.14, +0.70 over 3 months
Inflation: CPI 3.10%, 12-month average 3.12%
Last 12 months
Earlier
Aug 2026
Nov 2023 – Aug 2026
(drag the handles to change it)
Growth & inflation — Japan
leading
The four growth-and-inflation regimes for Japan, built like the US tile. Growth: the 3-month change in the OECD leading indicator for Japan. Inflation: CPI inflation, from the IMF's CPI dataset, minus its average over the past 12 months. The history starts in 1960. Pick a period with the handles under the strip, by dragging across the strip, or (on the public site) with the zoom; the quadrant traces that period, its last 12 months dark. The chart is the same in every display mode.
Growth & inflation — Japan
ⓘ
Growth ↑ Inflation ↓
●
as of 2026-08-01
Since Aug 2026, after Reflation
Growth: CLI 100.32, +0.14 over 3 months
Inflation: CPI 1.96%, 12-month average 1.97%
Last 12 months
Earlier
Aug 2026
Nov 2023 – Aug 2026
(drag the handles to change it)
Growth & inflation — China
leading
The four growth-and-inflation regimes for China, built like the US tile, read by direction rather than level, so inflation rising from below 1% still counts as rising. Growth: the 3-month change in the OECD leading indicator for China. Inflation: CPI inflation, from the IMF's CPI dataset, minus its average over the past 12 months. The history starts in December 1994. Pick a period with the handles under the strip, by dragging across the strip, or (on the public site) with the zoom; the quadrant traces that period, its last 12 months dark. The chart is the same in every display mode.
Growth & inflation — China
ⓘ
Growth ↓ Inflation ↑
●
as of 2026-09-01
Since Aug 2026, after Disinflationary slowdown
Growth: CLI 97.41, -0.74 over 3 months
Inflation: CPI 0.90%, 12-month average 0.83%
Last 12 months
Earlier
Sep 2026
Nov 2023 – Sep 2026
(drag the handles to change it)
OECD CLI — G20
leading
OECD composite leading indicator for the G20 (amplitude adjusted, the OECD's headline CLI). The OECD designs its CLIs to signal turning points and reads the direction of change rather than its size; it finds turning points in GDP about 4 to 8 months, on average, after the CLI signals them. The dashboard reads 100 as trend.
OECD CLI — G20
ⓘ
100.1
+0.4σ
72 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▼
-0.02 vs prior
▼
-0.04σ vs prior
▼
-3 pct vs prior
Above trend, slowing
Core capital goods orders — US
leading
Census Bureau: manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, change over 12 months (%). Since 1993 the range has been −32% (April 2009) to +25% (April 2021).
Core capital goods orders — US
ⓘ
14.11 %
+1.9σ
100 pct
●
as of 2026-08-01
▲
+0.79 vs prior
▲
+0.14σ vs prior
▲
+3 pct vs prior
OECD CLI — US
leading
OECD composite leading indicator for the US (amplitude adjusted), the growth input of the US regime tile. Since 1955 it has averaged 100.0 and been at or above 100 in 54% of months. The dashboard reads 100 as trend.
OECD CLI — US
ⓘ
101.0
+1.7σ
93 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.05 vs prior
▲
+0.07σ vs prior
▲
+2 pct vs prior
Above trend & rising
Empire State manufacturing
leading
New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey: the general business conditions diffusion index for New York State (seasonally adjusted), the survey's headline index. Above 0, more firms reported better conditions than worse. The survey goes to about 200 manufacturing executives each month; about 100 reply.
Empire State manufacturing
ⓘ
25.50
+2.0σ
98 pct
●
as of 2026-10-01
▲
+17.90 vs prior
▲
+1.33σ vs prior
▲
+23 pct vs prior
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing
leading
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: the current general activity diffusion index, the percentage of firms reporting increases minus the percentage reporting decreases (seasonally adjusted). Above 0, more firms reported increases.
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing
ⓘ
20.90
+1.0σ
89 pct
●
as of 2026-10-01
▼
-16.90 vs prior
▼
-1.00σ vs prior
▼
-7 pct vs prior
Industrial production — US
coincident
Federal Reserve industrial production (manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities): change over 12 months (%). Since 1960 it has been negative in 24% of months.
Industrial production — US
ⓘ
2.25 %
+1.1σ
90 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.63 vs prior
▲
+0.47σ vs prior
▲
+12 pct vs prior
Real GDP — US
lagging
US real GDP growth, BEA's headline measure: % change from the preceding quarter at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. It has been negative in 44 quarters since 1947, most recently in the first quarter of 2022.
Real GDP — US
ⓘ
2.20 %
-0.2σ
34 pct
●
as of 2026-04-01
▼
-0.30 vs prior
▼
-0.17σ vs prior
▼
-13 pct vs prior
OECD CLI — G7
leading
OECD composite leading indicator for the G7 (amplitude adjusted). The dashboard reads 100 as trend.
OECD CLI — G7
ⓘ
100.9
+1.6σ
93 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.07 vs prior
▲
+0.09σ vs prior
▲
+3 pct vs prior
Above trend & rising
OECD CLI — UK
leading
OECD composite leading indicator for the UK (amplitude adjusted), the growth input of the UK regime tile. The dashboard reads 100 as trend.
OECD CLI — UK
ⓘ
101.4
+1.1σ
97 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.24 vs prior
▲
+0.13σ vs prior
▲
+2 pct vs prior
Above trend & rising
OECD CLI — Japan
leading
OECD composite leading indicator for Japan (amplitude adjusted), the growth input of the Japan regime tile. The dashboard reads 100 as trend.
OECD CLI — Japan
ⓘ
100.3
+1.4σ
88 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.02 vs prior
▲
+0.08σ vs prior
▲
+3 pct vs prior
Above trend & rising
OECD CLI — Germany
leading
OECD composite leading indicator for Germany (amplitude adjusted), one of the four indicators the dashboard combines into its euro-area indicator. The dashboard reads 100 as trend.
OECD CLI — Germany
ⓘ
101.0
+1.1σ
90 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.10 vs prior
▲
+0.11σ vs prior
▲
+2 pct vs prior
Above trend & rising
PMI — Euro area
manual
Purchasing managers' index for the euro area from S&P Global. Licensed, so the tile links to S&P Global's PMI site instead of showing data.
PMI — Euro area
ⓘ
Licensed / headline-only — not auto-fetched.
S&P Global purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the euro area.
PMI — UK
manual
Purchasing managers' index for the UK from S&P Global. Licensed, so the tile links to S&P Global's PMI site instead of showing data.
PMI — UK
ⓘ
Licensed / headline-only — not auto-fetched.
S&P Global purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the UK.
PMI — Japan
manual
Purchasing managers' index for Japan from S&P Global. Licensed, so the tile links to S&P Global's PMI site instead of showing data.
PMI — Japan
ⓘ
Licensed / headline-only — not auto-fetched.
S&P Global purchasing managers' index (PMI) for Japan.
Cockpit zone: Windscreen
US labour-market indicators from the weekly claims to the monthly jobs report, plus unemployment rates for the UK, Japan and Germany. The dashboard classes claims, quits, openings, temp-help employment and hours as leading, payrolls as coincident and the US unemployment rate as lagging.
More in the guide ›
Initial jobless claims — US
leading
Initial claims for unemployment insurance (US Employment and Training Administration), weekly, seasonally adjusted: claims filed by people after a separation from an employer. The badge turns amber when the latest week is more than 15% above the lowest of the past 52 weeks, the dashboard's own rule; since 1970 that was so in 31% of weeks.
Initial jobless claims — US
ⓘ
199,000
-1.5σ
5 pct
●
as of 2026-10-10
▲
+1,000 vs prior
▲
+0.07σ vs prior
▲
+2 pct vs prior
Near lows — firm
Continuing claims — US
leading
Continued claims (insured unemployment): people who have already filed an initial claim and claim benefits for a week of unemployment; weekly, seasonally adjusted. Same badge rule as initial claims; since 1970 it read 'Rising off lows' in 24% of weeks.
Continuing claims — US
ⓘ
1,710,000
-0.3σ
27 pct
●
as of 2026-10-03
▼
-4,000 vs prior
▼
-0.02σ vs prior
▼
-2 pct vs prior
Near lows — firm
Quits rate (JOLTS) — US
leading
Quits as a percentage of total nonfarm employment (BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey), monthly. Since December 2000 it has ranged from 1.2% (August 2009) to 3.0% (November 2021).
Quits rate (JOLTS) — US
ⓘ
1.90 %
-1.1σ
8 pct
●
as of 2026-08-01
▬
+0.00 vs prior
▬
+0.00σ vs prior
▬
+0 pct vs prior
Job openings (JOLTS) — US
leading
Job openings (BLS JOLTS), thousands: positions open on the last business day of the month, with work available that can start within 30 days and active recruiting. They peaked at 12.3 million in March 2022; in August 2026 there were about 1.0 openings per unemployed person.
Job openings (JOLTS) — US
ⓘ
7,079 k
-0.9σ
14 pct
●
as of 2026-08-01
▼
-256 vs prior
▼
-0.15σ vs prior
▼
-19 pct vs prior
Temp-help employment — US
leading
Employees in temporary help services (BLS establishment survey), thousands. Before the 2001, 2007 and 2020 recessions it peaked 11 to 19 months before the NBER peak.
Temp-help employment — US
ⓘ
2,487 k
-1.0σ
15 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▼
-11 vs prior
▼
-0.04σ vs prior
▼
-8 pct vs prior
Manufacturing hours — US
leading
Average weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory employees in manufacturing (BLS): the hours they were paid for, which can be lower than scheduled hours.
Manufacturing hours — US
ⓘ
42.00 hrs
+2.5σ
100 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.20 vs prior
▲
+0.51σ vs prior
▲
+2 pct vs prior
Nonfarm payrolls — US
coincident
Change in total nonfarm payroll employment from the previous month (BLS), in thousands. Payroll employment covers about 80% of the workers who contribute to GDP (FRED). It fell in seven months from January 2025 to September 2026.
Nonfarm payrolls — US
ⓘ
29 k
-0.8σ
17 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▼
-104 vs prior
▼
-0.54σ vs prior
▼
-29 pct vs prior
Unemployment rate — US
lagging
US unemployment rate (U-3, BLS household survey): the unemployed as a percentage of the labour force, aged 16 and over. It feeds the Sahm rule on the Recession Watch tab.
Unemployment rate — US
ⓘ
4.20 %
+0.8σ
74 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.10 vs prior
▲
+0.32σ vs prior
▲
+14 pct vs prior
Unemployment rate — UK
lagging
UK unemployment rate, aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted (ONS Labour Force Survey, MGSX). Each value covers three months and is dated at the middle one: the ONS's 4.9% for May to July 2026 is the June 2026 point.
Unemployment rate — UK
ⓘ
4.90 %
+1.3σ
86 pct
●
as of 2026-06-01
▬
+0.00 vs prior
▬
+0.00σ vs prior
▬
+0 pct vs prior
Unemployment rate — Japan
lagging
Japan's unemployment rate, aged 15 and over, seasonally adjusted (OECD infra-annual labour statistics via FRED).
Unemployment rate — Japan
ⓘ
2.50 %
-0.7σ
28 pct
●
as of 2026-08-01
▲
+0.10 vs prior
▲
+1.10σ vs prior
▲
+24 pct vs prior
Unemployment rate — Germany
lagging
Germany's unemployment rate, aged 15 and over, seasonally adjusted (OECD infra-annual labour statistics via FRED).
Unemployment rate — Germany
ⓘ
4.00 %
+1.8σ
98 pct
●
as of 2026-08-01
▬
+0.00 vs prior
▬
+0.00σ vs prior
▬
+0 pct vs prior
Cockpit zone: Mirrors / Windscreen
· 4 source(s) pending
Supply-chain pressure and commodity prices. The New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index combines shipping and airfreight costs with PMI supply indicators for seven economies; oil, natural gas and copper are market benchmark prices. The dashboard classes all five tiles as leading.
More in the guide ›
Global supply chain pressure
leading
New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: the common component of shipping and airfreight costs and of PMI delivery times, backlogs and purchased stocks for seven economies, each cleaned of demand effects, in standard deviations from its average since 1997. The badge bands are the dashboard's own. Its highest reading was 4.43, in December 2021.
Global supply chain pressure
ⓘ
1.28 σ
+0.4σ
75 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.08 vs prior
▲
+0.05σ vs prior
▲
+5 pct vs prior
Elevated pressure
Brent crude oil
leading
Brent crude oil spot price (EIA via FRED, US$ per barrel). The EIA describes Brent as a blended North Sea crude that serves as a reference price for other crude streams. Its highest daily price was $143.95 on 3 July 2008.
Brent crude oil
ⓘ
126.5 USD/bbl
+2.7σ
99 pct
●
as of 2026-10-14
▲
+0.77 vs prior
▲
+0.05σ vs prior
▲
+0 pct vs prior
WTI crude oil — US
leading
West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price at Cushing, Oklahoma (EIA via FRED, US$ per barrel), a reference price for other crude streams. It closed at −$36.98 on 20 April 2020, the only negative day in the series.
WTI crude oil — US
ⓘ
101.9 USD/bbl
+1.6σ
92 pct
●
as of 2026-10-14
▲
+1.05 vs prior
▲
+0.08σ vs prior
▲
+1 pct vs prior
Henry Hub natural gas — US
leading
Henry Hub natural gas spot price (EIA via FRED, US$ per million BTU), for delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana. Its highest daily price since 1997 was $30.72, on 23 January 2026.
Henry Hub natural gas — US
ⓘ
3.22 USD/MMBtu
-0.2σ
60 pct
●
as of 2026-10-14
▲
+0.08 vs prior
▲
+0.04σ vs prior
▲
+4 pct vs prior
Copper price
leading
Global price of copper (IMF via FRED, US$ per metric ton, monthly average), a benchmark the IMF describes as representative of the global market. The badge reads the change over three months: above +1% rising, below −1% falling, the dashboard's own rule.
Copper price
ⓘ
13,543 USD/t
+2.5σ
98 pct
●
as of 2026-07-01
▼
-9.22 vs prior
▼
-0.01σ vs prior
▼
-2 pct vs prior
Rising — demand firm
Cockpit zone: Mirrors
· 1 source(s) pending
US consumers and housing: the Michigan sentiment index, building permits, housing starts, new home sales, the 30-year mortgage rate and real retail sales. The dashboard classes all but retail sales as leading; real retail sales are coincident.
More in the guide ›
UMich consumer sentiment
leading
University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (Surveys of Consumers; 1966:Q1 = 100). FRED shows it a month late at the source's request. Its lowest value on FRED is 44.8, in May 2026.
UMich consumer sentiment
ⓘ
51.70 index
-1.3σ
12 pct
●
as of 2026-08-01
▼
-3.50 vs prior
▼
-0.42σ vs prior
▼
-12 pct vs prior
Building permits
leading
New privately owned housing units authorized by building permits (Census Bureau and HUD), seasonally adjusted annual rate, thousands. Its highest month in the three years before each NBER peak since 1969 came 3 to 31 months before the peak.
Building permits
ⓘ
1,403 k
-0.8σ
14 pct
●
as of 2026-08-01
▼
-30 vs prior
▼
-0.21σ vs prior
▼
-17 pct vs prior
Housing starts
leading
New privately owned housing units started (Census Bureau and HUD), seasonally adjusted annual rate, thousands. A start is when excavation begins for the footings or foundation. Census attaches a range of ±12.0% to the August 2026 monthly change, wider than the change itself.
Housing starts
ⓘ
1,275 k
-1.1σ
7 pct
●
as of 2026-08-01
▼
-34 vs prior
▼
-0.25σ vs prior
▼
-10 pct vs prior
New home sales
leading
New single-family houses sold (Census Bureau and HUD), seasonally adjusted annual rate, thousands. Census attaches a range of ±19.5% to the August 2026 monthly change.
New home sales
ⓘ
684 k
+0.3σ
66 pct
●
as of 2026-08-01
▲
+41 vs prior
▲
+0.71σ vs prior
▲
+31 pct vs prior
30Y mortgage rate
leading
Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average, weekly. Since 17 November 2022 it is based on applications lenders submit to Freddie Mac. Since 1971 it has ranged from 2.65% (January 2021) to 18.63% (October 1981).
30Y mortgage rate
ⓘ
7.40 %
+1.1σ
97 pct
●
as of 2026-10-15
▬
+0.00 vs prior
▬
+0.00σ vs prior
▬
+0 pct vs prior
Real retail sales — US
coincident
Real retail and food services sales: Census advance retail sales deflated by CPI (computed by the St. Louis Fed, FRED RRSFS), change over 12 months (%). FRED's CPI has no October 2025 value, so this tile has none for October 2025 or October 2026.
Real retail sales — US
ⓘ
2.48 %
+0.9σ
93 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.35 vs prior
▲
+0.12σ vs prior
▲
+9 pct vs prior
Cockpit zone: Side windows
· 2 source(s) pending
Market prices and news-based uncertainty: the S&P 500 (licensed, so link-only on the public site), the VIX, the Federal Reserve's broad dollar index, and Baker, Bloom and Davis's economic policy uncertainty indexes for the US and the world.
More in the guide ›
S&P 500
licensed
S&P 500 price index at the daily close (S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED), without dividends; FRED's notes say it covers 75% of US equities. Licensed: link-only on the public site, and FRED keeps only 10 years of daily history.
S&P 500
ⓘ
Copyrighted data: republishing it requires the rights holder's permission,
so it is linked rather than shown.
VIX
leading
Cboe Volatility Index (VIX): the market's expectation of near-term volatility conveyed by stock index option prices (FRED). The badge bands are the dashboard's own; since 1990 the index was below 20 on 63% of days and at 30 or above on 8%.
VIX
ⓘ
16.46
-0.5σ
38 pct
●
as of 2026-10-15
▼
-0.41 vs prior
▼
-0.08σ vs prior
▼
-4 pct vs prior
Calm
Broad US dollar
leading
Federal Reserve nominal broad US dollar index (January 2006 = 100): the dollar against the currencies of 26 economies, weighted by their share of US goods and services trade. A rise means a stronger dollar.
Broad US dollar
ⓘ
121.6 index
+0.2σ
65 pct
●
as of 2026-10-09
▲
+0.16 vs prior
▲
+0.05σ vs prior
▲
+2 pct vs prior
Policy uncertainty — US (daily)
overlay
Economic policy uncertainty, US, daily (Baker, Bloom and Davis): built from US newspaper articles that contain terms on the economy, on uncertainty and on policy (Congress, deficit, Federal Reserve, legislation, regulation, White House), normalised by the number of articles. Daily values are noisy, and the last 30 days are revised each day.
Policy uncertainty — US (daily)
ⓘ
149.2 index
-0.4σ
45 pct
●
as of 2026-10-15
▼
-107.6 vs prior
▼
-0.69σ vs prior
▼
-25 pct vs prior
Policy uncertainty — Global
overlay
Global economic policy uncertainty (Baker, Bloom and Davis): a GDP-weighted average of newspaper-based national indexes for 18 countries, each re-normalised to a mean of 100 over 1997–2015 (current-price GDP weights). Its highest value was 621, in April 2025.
Policy uncertainty — Global
ⓘ
241.7 index
-0.4σ
47 pct
●
as of 2026-07-01
▼
-41.02 vs prior
▼
-0.45σ vs prior
▼
-16 pct vs prior
Cockpit zone: Side windows
· 3 source(s) pending
China, India, Korea and Brazil: the OECD leading indicators for the four, and consumer-price inflation for China and India from the IMF's CPI dataset. The PMIs for China and India are licensed and appear as links.
More in the guide ›
OECD CLI — China
leading
OECD composite leading indicator for China (amplitude adjusted), the growth input of the China regime tile. The dashboard reads 100 as trend; since 1992 it has been at or above 100 in 57% of months.
OECD CLI — China
ⓘ
97.41
-1.8σ
2 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▼
-0.23 vs prior
▼
-0.16σ vs prior
▼
-2 pct vs prior
Below trend & falling
OECD CLI — India
leading
OECD composite leading indicator for India (amplitude adjusted). The dashboard reads 100 as trend.
OECD CLI — India
ⓘ
102.0
+2.5σ
100 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.18 vs prior
▲
+0.22σ vs prior
▲
+2 pct vs prior
Above trend & rising
OECD CLI — Korea
leading
OECD composite leading indicator for Korea (amplitude adjusted). The dashboard reads 100 as trend.
OECD CLI — Korea
ⓘ
102.5
+2.1σ
95 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▼
-0.13 vs prior
▼
-0.10σ vs prior
▼
-3 pct vs prior
Above trend, slowing
OECD CLI — Brazil
leading
OECD composite leading indicator for Brazil (amplitude adjusted). The dashboard reads 100 as trend.
OECD CLI — Brazil
ⓘ
102.4
+1.4σ
87 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▼
-0.08 vs prior
▼
-0.07σ vs prior
▼
-2 pct vs prior
Above trend, slowing
CPI inflation — China
coincident
China CPI inflation, % over 12 months, from the IMF's CPI dataset (it matched the National Bureau of Statistics' releases for June to August 2026). No badge or reference line: no official target has been verified. Since 2023 it has been below 1% in 86% of months.
CPI inflation — China
ⓘ
0.90 %
+0.2σ
63 pct
●
as of 2026-09-01
▲
+0.10 vs prior
▲
+0.11σ vs prior
▲
+3 pct vs prior
CPI inflation — India
coincident
India CPI inflation, % over 12 months, from the IMF's CPI dataset. The RBI's target is 4% CPI inflation with a tolerance band of 2–6%, retained in March 2026 for April 2026 to March 2031; the reference line is at 4 and the badge reads the band.
CPI inflation — India
ⓘ
4.44 %
-0.2σ
38 pct
●
as of 2026-07-01
▲
+0.06 vs prior
▲
+0.04σ vs prior
▲
+2 pct vs prior
Within the RBI band
PMI — China
manual
Purchasing managers' index for China from S&P Global. Licensed, so the tile links to S&P Global's PMI releases instead of showing data.
PMI — China
ⓘ
Licensed / headline-only — not auto-fetched.
S&P Global purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China.
PMI — India
manual
Purchasing managers' index for India from S&P Global. Licensed, so the tile links to S&P Global's PMI site instead of showing data.
PMI — India
ⓘ
Licensed / headline-only — not auto-fetched.
S&P Global purchasing managers' index (PMI) for India.
Cockpit zone: Speedometer
· 12 source(s) pending
The speedometer: valuation and leverage gauges for how little margin of safety is left, not for when a fall will come. In the design brief's words the speedometer is not a clock, and it should be read against the windscreen (Recession Watch, Conditions) rather than alone.
More in the guide ›
Equity / GDP (Buffett) — US
fragility
US nonfinancial corporate equity (Federal Reserve Financial Accounts) divided by GDP, computed by this dashboard. Since 1947 its median is 0.69; it first exceeded 1.5 in the fourth quarter of 1999 and 2 in the first quarter of 2021, and its highest value, 2.55, is the latest (second quarter of 2026). The badge bands are the dashboard's own.
Equity / GDP (Buffett) — US
ⓘ
2.55 x
+2.1σ
100 pct
●
as of 2026-04-01
▲
+0.36 vs prior
▲
+1.27σ vs prior
▲
+17 pct vs prior
Very stretched
Stocks vs bonds — US
leading
Two yields the dashboard, after Ray Dalio, reads as expected real returns: the earnings yield of US nonfinancial corporations (after-tax profits over their corporate equities) and the 10-year Treasury yield minus the Cleveland Fed's 10-year expected inflation. The value is the gap. It was last negative on 28 June 2002; its narrowest since then was 0.63, on 5 October 2026. The badge bands (0 and 1) are the dashboard's own. Profits are quarterly, so the stocks line moves in quarterly steps and between them only bonds move the gap.
Stocks vs bonds — US
ⓘ
1.00 pp
-1.5σ
2 pct
●
as of 2026-10-15
▲
+0.09 vs prior
▲
+0.09σ vs prior
▲
+1 pct vs prior
Stocks 3.37% (Q2 2026, quarterly)
Bonds 2.37% (daily)
Gap: stocks 3.37% − bonds 2.37%
Gap: stocks 3.37% − bonds 2.37%
Close to crossing
Stocks vs bonds — Euro area
leading
Built like the US tile from ECB data: the after-tax earnings yield of euro-area non-financial corporations (net entrepreneurial income minus current taxes over four quarters, over the equity they have issued) against the ECB's AAA 10-year yield minus the longer-term inflation expectation in its Survey of Professional Forecasters. The badge ranks the gap against its own history since September 2004; on 28 September 2026 it was the narrowest in that history.
Stocks vs bonds — Euro area
ⓘ
4.78 pp
-1.9σ
2 pct
●
as of 2026-10-15
▲
+0.12 vs prior
▲
+0.15σ vs prior
▲
+1 pct vs prior
Stocks 6.14% (Q2 2026, quarterly)
Bonds 1.35% (daily)
Gap: stocks 6.14% − bonds 1.35%
Gap: stocks 6.14% − bonds 1.35%
Near its narrowest since 2004
Stocks vs bonds — UK
leading
Built like the euro-area tile from ONS data for UK private non-financial corporations, against the Bank of England's 10-year real zero-coupon gilt yield. The badge ranks the gap against its own history since December 1997. The ONS profitability data that give depreciation end in the second quarter of 2025, so the tile continues depreciation at its growth over the year before.
Stocks vs bonds — UK
ⓘ
5.20 pp
-1.7σ
0 pct
●
as of 2026-10-14
▲
+0.00 vs prior
▲
+0.00σ vs prior
▲
+0 pct vs prior
Stocks 7.23% (Q2 2026, quarterly)
Bonds 2.02% (daily)
Gap: stocks 7.23% − bonds 2.02%
Gap: stocks 7.23% − bonds 2.02%
Narrow: bottom 10% since 1997
Real 10Y yield — US
overlay
Yield on 10-year US Treasury inflation-indexed securities at constant maturity (Federal Reserve H.15, via FRED), %. Since 2003 it has been negative on 16% of days, most recently on 28 April 2022.
Real 10Y yield — US
ⓘ
2.78 %
+1.4σ
99 pct
●
as of 2026-10-15
▼
-0.06 vs prior
▼
-0.07σ vs prior
▼
+0 pct vs prior
IPO & SPAC issuance — US
manual
IPO and SPAC issuance in the US. The dashboard has no free, republishable feed for it, so the tile links to public trackers (Renaissance Capital, SPACInsider).
IPO & SPAC issuance — US
ⓘ
Licensed / headline-only — not auto-fetched.
No free, republishable feed. Public trackers:
Case-Shiller price/rent — US
licensed
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller US national home price index divided by the CPI for rent of primary residence, computed by this dashboard. Licensed: link-only on the public site. The two indexes have different base periods, so read the ratio's changes and its position in its own history.
Case-Shiller price/rent — US
ⓘ
Copyrighted data: republishing it requires the rights holder's permission,
so it is linked rather than shown.
Household debt service — US
fragility
Household debt service ratio (Federal Reserve): required household debt payments as a percentage of disposable personal income. Since its 2024:Q2 publication the Fed uses a new, credit-bureau-based method, and the series starts in 2005. It peaked at 15.8% in the fourth quarter of 2007.
Household debt service — US
ⓘ
11.11 %
+0.7σ
68 pct
●
as of 2026-04-01
▼
-0.05 vs prior
▼
-0.15σ vs prior
▼
-21 pct vs prior
About this edition
This page is a static snapshot of an interactive dashboard developed for private use, rebuilt automatically each day. The public edition is deliberately limited to comply with data-licensing terms and security requirements: indicators whose licences do not permit republication are shown as links only, and live refresh and custom date ranges are not available. Last built: 2026-10-18 11:04 UTC.
Data sources and licences
Each tile credits its source. Sources republished on this page:
- Source: Bank of England (SONIA, Open Government Licence v3.0)
- Source: Bank of Japan
- Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) via FRED
- Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) via FRED; volatility computed by this site
- Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US); Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED
- Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED
- Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange via FRED
- Source: Claudia Sahm via FRED
- Source: European Central Bank (ECB Data Portal)
- Source: European Central Bank (ECB Data Portal); gap computed by this site
- Source: Eurostat (CC BY 4.0)
- Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED
- Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED
- Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
- Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia via FRED
- Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED
- Source: Freddie Mac via FRED
- Source: International Monetary Fund via FRED
- Source: International Monetary Fund, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- Source: Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger via FRED
- Source: OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CC BY 4.0)
- Source: OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CC BY 4.0); Eurostat (CC BY 4.0); regime computed by this site
- Source: OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CC BY 4.0); International Monetary Fund, Consumer Price Index (CPI); regime computed by this site
- Source: OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CC BY 4.0); Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0); regime computed by this site
- Source: OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CC BY 4.0); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED; regime computed by this site
- Source: Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0)
- Source: Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0); Bank of England (Open Government Licence v3.0); gap computed by this site
- Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED
- Source: Scott R. Baker, Nick Bloom and Steven J. Davis via FRED
- Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED
- Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve Board; Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland via FRED; gap computed by this site
- Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED
- Source: U.S. Census Bureau via FRED
- Source: U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development via FRED
- Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration via FRED
- Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration via FRED
- Source: University of Michigan via FRED
Z-scores, percentiles, changes versus the prior observation and series derived from several inputs (such as net liquidity, the equity/GDP ratio and the growth/inflation regimes) are computed by this site from the original series. They are adaptations of the original works and are not endorsed by the source organisations.
This is an adaptation of an original work by the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed in this adaptation should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its Member countries.
OECD and Eurostat data are used under CC BY 4.0; ECB, Bank of Japan and New York Fed data under their terms of use, with the source credited. Bank of England and ONS data are used under the Open Government Licence v3.0. IMF data are used under the IMF's terms for statistical data, which also apply to anyone reusing them from this page. No data provider endorses this site. Licensed indicators (S&P 500, ICE BofA credit spreads, S&P Cotality Case-Shiller) and headline-only surveys are linked rather than republished.
Bank of England data (SONIA and gilt yields) licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0 and copyright the Governor and Company of the Bank of England.
Source: Office for National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence v.3.0.
This service uses the API provided by the "Bank of Japan Time-Series Data Search." The Bank of Japan does not guarantee the content of the service.
© 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.
This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Not investment advice. For information and education only; no warranty of accuracy, completeness or timeliness.
Co-written by Claude Code Opus 5 · Directed by Martin Hoshi Vognsen · Source code (MIT licence)